The past decade has seen enormous expansion in the global grains and oilseeds economy, driven by growth in population and prosperity as well as by steeply rising biofuel and other industrial uses. Rising demand for grains was more than matched by increased production, especially after the price surges of 2007-08. World trade in wheat, coarse grains and rice rose by nearly 20% from 2000 levels; in the oilseeds sector, responding to substantially enhanced demand for both animal feed (especially from China) and biofuels, the total trade volume climbed by as much as 50%.

The dramatic price swings and the global economic downturn in the last years of the decade presented grain markets with considerable challenges, also threatening the immediate food security of vulnerable populations and denting consumption trends, especially in the feed sector.

Medium-term forecasts suggest that trade in the major grains and oilseeds will see further growth in the next ten years as world demand expands further. While many buyers have significantly improved their ability to manage price risks, the possibility of sudden spikes, not always explained by grain market fundamentals, remains a concern. Importers, especially those developing countries heavily reliant on external sources of food supply, remain vulnerable to sudden changes in prices and ocean freight costs.

While markets remain unpredictable, improvements in transparency and a better appreciation of likely future trends are vital ingredients for a more stable trading environment. The next IGC Grains Conference aims to improve understanding of global grain and oilseed markets by bringing together all sectors of the industry with government policy makers, to exchange views and consider likely scenarios for the new decade.